The situation is not quite as profound in the US, though we will be seeing a dramatic increase in the age dependency ratio (the number of people of retired age relative to those of working age) between 2010 and 2030 as the Baby Boomers retire: in 2010 there were 22 people aged 65 and older for every 100 people of working age. By 2030, this number will have grown to 37 people aged 65 and older for every 100 people of working age.

However, while the ratios are not as poor in the US as in Europe, the unfunded liabilities the US faces are truly astronomical. USAToday puts the number at $61.6 trillion in unfunded obligations, an amount equal to roughly $528,000 per US household.

Japan makes both the EU and the US look tame.  In 2009, Japan already had 35 people aged 65 or older for every 100 people of working age. However, by 2050, this number will have swelled to an incredible 73 people aged 65 or older out of every 100 people of working age. This among other things sets Japan as a ticking time bomb.

The EU, Japan, and the US comprise $36 trillion of the global $64 trillion economy (roughly 57%). So this debt overhang will have a profound impact on global growth particularly in the developed world going forward.

This debt overhang will result in several developments from a political perspective. For one thing, the social contract between Governments and retirees will have to be re-negotiated, as the money promised by the former to the latter simply isn’t there.

Governments will try to deal with this in one of two ways: by raising taxes on high- income earners/ any other potential avenue for raising revenues and by reneging on the promises made to retirees.

The impact these moves will have on the political landscape will be profound. Among other things we will be seeing more protests both at the ballot box and in the streets (Greece’s riots are a taste of what’s to come for much of Europe and eventually the US).

To picture how a cutback in social programs will impact the US populace, consider that in 2011, 48% of Americans lived in a household in which at least one member received some kind of Government benefit. Over 45 million Americans currently receive food stamps. And 43% of Americans aged 65-74 are Medicare beneficiaries.

Consider the impact that even a 10% reduction in these various programs would have on the US populace.

Make no mistake, we are heading into a Crisis that will make 2008 look like a joke. The money for all of these various programs (both in Europe and the US) simply isn’t there. 

So a word to the wise; start saving and NOT in your home country or country of residence, give us a call we can help 03 5724 5100

These are the rates that the Fed (a private corporation) charges banks and unfortunately they do not pass along these great rates to us and at the same time banks no longer pay us any worthwhile interest to hold our funds. If your bank gives you 2% interest on your savings you can double your money in 36 years and at 1% in 72 years. Though by then that money will not be worth much as long as the Fed exists and prints the value of money away. graphs – RTTNews

Source: IEA/Goldman Sachs

Jim Sinclair is the Chairman and CEO of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation (TRE: Altanext NYSE platform, TNX: Senior Toronto Stock Exchange). He is a precious metals and commodities specialist. Some of the highlights of his nearly 50 year career include the founding of Sinclair Group of Companies (1977), which offered full brokerage services. Mr. Sinclair served as a Precious Metals Advisor to Hunt Oil and the Hunt family for the liquidation of their silver position as a prerequisite for the $1 billion loan arranged by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker. He was also a General Partner and Member of the Executive Committee of two New York Stock Exchange firms and President of Sinclair Global Clearing Corporation and Global Arbitrage .

He has authored numerous magazine articles and three books dealing with a variety of investment subjects. He is a regular speaker at various commodities related events.

In January 2003, Mr. Sinclair launched, “Jim Sinclairs MineSet,” which now hosts his gold commentary and is intended as a free service to the gold community.

A question for readers: How big is China when it comes to cement? Keep in mind
that the EU and the USA have GDPs of about $15T apiece. China is much smaller
and has a GDP closer to $6T. Knowing that, what’s your guess on how China
stacks up in the world of cement? I would have thought that China was as big as
the US or EU. The economy is smaller, but they are building so much, my guess
was about equal.

Wrong.
wrong. wrong. I must admit, I was blown away by this:

China is 25 Xs larger than either the US or EU! When it comes
to cement, forget the rest of the world and focus on what is happening in the
country with a 54% market share.

China’s
cement production has been on a tear for years. But it’s slowing down. The
production for 2011 will come in at 1.88mm metric tones, an increase of only 6%
over 2010 (the slowest in 15 years). The Cement Association of China is
forecasting that 2012 total production will be “about the same as 2011”. We
shall see. I saw this article on cement pricing in Sichuan province.

Since 2004 China’ GDP has doubled. So has its cement production. That’s not a
coincidence. The forecast for unchanged production in 2012 is inconsistent with
high growth in GDP. What does zero growth in cement production translate into
Chinese economic growth? My guess is that 4% GDP would be a good result. That
would be well below stall speed for China.

Say what you want about him, but Bernie Madoff was a guy who knew how to keep the party going. For years, he ran one of the largest private-sector Ponzi schemes in history and always heeded the golden rule of financial scams: make sure your inflows are greater than your outflows.

He was finally done in when redemptions exceeded new investments. He didn’t have enough cash to pay out investors, and he wasn’t able to scam more people into paying in to the scheme. As a result, Madoff finally had to admit that the whole thing was a total fraud.

Governments around the world are in similar situations right now with their own public sector Ponzi schemes. Faced with failed auctions, declining demand, and rising yields, politicians are having to resort to desperate measures.

Like any good scam artist, they’re appealing to the masses first; all over Europe, governments are sponsoring new marketing campaigns suggesting that it’s people’s patriotic duty to buy government debt.

In Spain, they’re actually issuing instruments called ‘Bonos Patrioticos,’ or ‘patriotic bonds’. Ad campaigns say that the bonds are “good for you, good for the future.”

In Ireland, they’ve issued “Prize Bonds” which carry a 0% interest rate; instead of receiving interest, bondholders are entered into a weekly lottery contest. Naturally, lottery winnings are only possible as long as people keep buying the bonds… pretty much the definition of a Ponzi scheme!

In Italy, they’re rolling out the country’s sports celebrities to encourage everyone to buy Italian sovereign debt.

What’s ironic is that Italy’s dismal balance sheet is almost universally acknowledged. It’s as if everyone knows the country has almost no chance of making good on its obligations, but they still feel the need to willingly throw away their hard earned savings for the greater good of political incompetence.

Thing is, it’s not the millionaire sports stars, wealthy business leaders, or political elite who are buying these bonds… at least, not in anything beyond a token, symbolic amount. It’s the average guy on the street who really stands to get hurt when the government finally capitulates.

This is a truly despicable act and amounts to theft, plain and simple.

The United Kingdom, which is rapidly reaching this banana republic sovereign debt status itself, has unveiled a plan to issue roughly $50 billion in infrastructure bonds. This would be the equivalent of issuing $300 billion in the US– not exactly chump change.

Given Britain’s already colossal debt level, private investors aren’t exact diving in head first to loan the government even more money.

Undeterred, British Chancellor George Osborne plans to ‘highly encourage’ UK pension funds to mop up about 60% of the total amount. “We have got to make sure that British savings in things like pension funds are employed here and British taxpayers’ money is well used,” he said.

In other words, ‘we are going to make sure that British people buy our junk, one way or another.’

The last year has seen numerous pension funds around the world, from the United States to Argentina to Hungary, be raided for the sake of keeping these Ponzi scheme going. The UK is already lining up to be the next.

It’s one of the last acts of a truly desperate government to begin directing public and private savings into their Ponzi schemes.

Fast-forward a few downgrades and you can plan on seeing the exact same thing in the United States– appealing to people’s patriotism to loan their hard-earned savings (if they even have any) to the Federal government at a rate of interest that fails to keep up with inflation.

It’s nothing more than a very clever (and subtle) form of theft.

From Simon Black of Sovereign Man