The Fed speaks

Posted on 30th January 2012 by admin in Uncategorized

Low rates continue to 2014. Last year, the Federal Reserve predicted that the US economy would recover into 2012, and expectations were that the central bank would begin tightening interest rates by as early as 2013. This week we learned that the Fed expects to hold rates “exceptionally low” until late 2014. Although the Fed expects inflation to remain low, gold had a big rally believing instead that inflation will increase. Do you remember the rule of 72? When people still put money in the banks – to estimate how long it takes for your money to double, simply divide 72 by the interest rate. So at 6% – 12 years and 5-6% was on the low side for a long time. It was helpful to know in those days that one did not have to learn about risky investments and could still grow their savings. Here is the Fed fund rates since 1952.

These are the rates that the Fed (a private corporation) charges banks and unfortunately they do not pass along these great rates to us and at the same time banks no longer pay us any worthwhile interest to hold our funds. If your bank gives you 2% interest on your savings you can double your money in 36 years and at 1% in 72 years. Though by then that money will not be worth much as long as the Fed exists and prints the value of money away. graphs – RTTNews

 

Are oil producers are running at full capacity?

Posted on 24th January 2012 by admin in Blog |Uncategorized

 

Source: IEA/Goldman Sachs

Cement

Posted on 18th January 2012 by admin in Uncategorized

A question for readers: How big is China when it comes to cement? Keep in mind
that the EU and the USA have GDPs of about $15T apiece. China is much smaller
and has a GDP closer to $6T. Knowing that, what’s your guess on how China
stacks up in the world of cement? I would have thought that China was as big as
the US or EU. The economy is smaller, but they are building so much, my guess
was about equal.

Wrong.
wrong. wrong. I must admit, I was blown away by this:

 

China is 25 Xs larger than either the US or EU! When it comes
to cement, forget the rest of the world and focus on what is happening in the
country with a 54% market share.

China’s
cement production has been on a tear for years. But it’s slowing down. The
production for 2011 will come in at 1.88mm metric tones, an increase of only 6%
over 2010 (the slowest in 15 years). The Cement Association of China is
forecasting that 2012 total production will be “about the same as 2011”. We
shall see. I saw this article on cement pricing in Sichuan province.

 

 

Since 2004 China’ GDP has doubled. So has its cement production. That’s not a
coincidence. The forecast for unchanged production in 2012 is inconsistent with
high growth in GDP. What does zero growth in cement production translate into
Chinese economic growth? My guess is that 4% GDP would be a good result. That
would be well below stall speed for China.

 

This is your pension money . . . .think about it

Posted on 7th December 2011 by admin in Blog |Uncategorized

A Very Subtle Form Of Theft

Say what you want about him, but Bernie Madoff was a guy who knew how to keep the party going. For years, he ran one of the largest private-sector Ponzi schemes in history and always heeded the golden rule of financial scams: make sure your inflows are greater than your outflows.

He was finally done in when redemptions exceeded new investments. He didn’t have enough cash to pay out investors, and he wasn’t able to scam more people into paying in to the scheme. As a result, Madoff finally had to admit that the whole thing was a total fraud.

Governments around the world are in similar situations right now with their own public sector Ponzi schemes. Faced with failed auctions, declining demand, and rising yields, politicians are having to resort to desperate measures.

Like any good scam artist, they’re appealing to the masses first; all over Europe, governments are sponsoring new marketing campaigns suggesting that it’s people’s patriotic duty to buy government debt.

In Spain, they’re actually issuing instruments called ‘Bonos Patrioticos,’ or ‘patriotic bonds’. Ad campaigns say that the bonds are “good for you, good for the future.”

In Ireland, they’ve issued “Prize Bonds” which carry a 0% interest rate; instead of receiving interest, bondholders are entered into a weekly lottery contest. Naturally, lottery winnings are only possible as long as people keep buying the bonds… pretty much the definition of a Ponzi scheme!

In Italy, they’re rolling out the country’s sports celebrities to encourage everyone to buy Italian sovereign debt.

What’s ironic is that Italy’s dismal balance sheet is almost universally acknowledged. It’s as if everyone knows the country has almost no chance of making good on its obligations, but they still feel the need to willingly throw away their hard earned savings for the greater good of political incompetence.

Thing is, it’s not the millionaire sports stars, wealthy business leaders, or political elite who are buying these bonds… at least, not in anything beyond a token, symbolic amount. It’s the average guy on the street who really stands to get hurt when the government finally capitulates.

This is a truly despicable act and amounts to theft, plain and simple.

The United Kingdom, which is rapidly reaching this banana republic sovereign debt status itself, has unveiled a plan to issue roughly $50 billion in infrastructure bonds. This would be the equivalent of issuing $300 billion in the US– not exactly chump change.

Given Britain’s already colossal debt level, private investors aren’t exact diving in head first to loan the government even more money.

Undeterred, British Chancellor George Osborne plans to ‘highly encourage’ UK pension funds to mop up about 60% of the total amount. “We have got to make sure that British savings in things like pension funds are employed here and British taxpayers’ money is well used,” he said.

In other words, ‘we are going to make sure that British people buy our junk, one way or another.’

The last year has seen numerous pension funds around the world, from the United States to Argentina to Hungary, be raided for the sake of keeping these Ponzi scheme going. The UK is already lining up to be the next.

It’s one of the last acts of a truly desperate government to begin directing public and private savings into their Ponzi schemes.

Fast-forward a few downgrades and you can plan on seeing the exact same thing in the United States– appealing to people’s patriotism to loan their hard-earned savings (if they even have any) to the Federal government at a rate of interest that fails to keep up with inflation.

It’s nothing more than a very clever (and subtle) form of theft.

From Simon Black of Sovereign Man

Ten Charts

Posted on 17th October 2011 by admin in Uncategorized

Since April 2010, the Pew Fiscal Analysis Initiative has published several reports explaining the medium-and long-term fiscal challenges facing the federal government. With stagnating economic conditions and the passage of new legislation, especially the Budget Control Act of 2011, the outlook for the deficit and debt has changed considerably over the past six months.

Click here to see the rest;  PEW

Currency war brewing?

Posted on 12th October 2011 by admin in Blog |Uncategorized

From the Chinese Ministry of Commerce

On October 11, the U.S. Senate passed the “2011 Oversight Reform Act of currency exchange rate,” Shen Danyang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce has issued a statement that the recovery in the global economy facing a severe test of the critical moment, the U.S. Senate to force through legislation to promote trade partner currencies, is tantamount to upgrading the wrong signal on protectionism. This is a serious violation of international rules, and not only threatens the stable development of Sino-US economic and trade relations, but also with other countries to jointly cope with challenges, runs counter to efforts to oppose trade protectionism, China is firmly opposed.

Shen Danyang stressed that China has always maintained need for the two sides to strengthen communication, and to take common positive measures to develop Sino-US economic and trade cooperation. Once the motion is formally made into law, it will inevitably lead to serious damage to China-US economic and trade relations. China hopes that the U.S. after a rational and objective treatment of the exchange rate, makes the right choice.

We think Brandeaux’s 10 years of strong positive performance during good and bad times says it all.

Posted on 3rd October 2011 by admin in Uncategorized

 

MIT’s billion price project

Posted on 1st September 2011 by admin in Uncategorized

There is the CPI… and then there is the MIT’s billion price project which, as the name implies, tracks the prices of a billion products in real time. And according to the latter, annual inflation has hit a multi year high of about 4%.

Is a 44 percent cut just the start needed?

Posted on 13th July 2011 by admin in Uncategorized

The BPC study found that the United States is likely to hit the debt limit sometime between August 2 and August 9. “It’s a 44 percent overnight cut in federal spending” if Congress hits the debt limit, [BPC's Jay] Powell said. The BPC study projects there will be $172 billion in federal revenues in August and $307 billion in authorized expenditures. That means there’s enough money to pay for, say, interest on the debt ($29 billion), Social Security ($49.2 billion), Medicare and Medicaid ($50 billion), active duty troop pay ($2.9 billion), veterans affairs programs ($2.9 billion).

That leaves you with about $39 billion to fund (or not fund) the following:

Defense vendors ($31.7 billion)

IRS refunds ($3.9 billion)

Food stamps and welfare ($9.3 billion)

Unemployment insurance benefits ($12.8 billion)

Department of Education ($20.2 billion)

Housing and Urban Development ($6.7 billion)

Other spending, such as Departments of Justice, Labor, Commerce, EPA, HHS ($73.6 billion)

The decision to prioritize payments would fall on the Treasury department, and Powell points out it would be chaotic picking and choosing who gets paid (in full or partially) and who doesn’t…

No doubt picking and choosing who gets paid and who doesn’t would be chaotic. And, lots of programs would not get their funding and that would lead to plenty of screaming. Nonetheless, it should be clear from this exactly how much we are spending in excess of government revenues. And, that could and should lead to a sober assessment of what government can and cannot do.

Wood from the trees

Posted on 11th April 2011 by admin in Uncategorized

BEST QUOTE -Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge

“At a time where the government has demonstrated a complete lack of will over $38 billion, we are left in the hands of Ben to determine short term rates, influence the curve, and Timmy to determine what maturity profile that ‘best meets our needs’. The actions of either of these two unelected individuals could dwarf the $38 billion as every 1% of increased borrowing costs would cost $143 billion. Since the government could barely deal with $38 billion, how will they deal with increased borrowing costs? Does even congress know just how trivial their cuts look relative to the potential increases in debt cost?”