Trying to pick a bottom is always a difficult thing to do. Put it this way, you’re a lot closer to a significant bottom than you are to a top.

Posted on 15th May 2012 by Trevor Reynolds in Uncategorized

John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of Sprott Asset Management. John discusses gold and other major markets, but first, here is what Embry had to say regarding recent derivatives turmoil: 

“This makes me very uncomfortable because I’ve always been very wary of the whole derivative situation. I believe the notional value of the outstanding derivatives is comfortably north of one quadrillion dollars. The Bank of International Settlements changed the definition, so they said there is only $700 trillion worth of them, rather than one quadrillion.”

 

But it doesn’t make any difference, these (derivatives) are many, many multiples of the world GDP. If these things get in any trouble, and I think the JP Morgan thing may be the first sign of significant trouble again, it’s fantastically important to the whole financial situation. In a rational market the gold price should have been up $100, not down $40 in the wake of this.

 

I would defer to Jim Sinclair, who I have the utmost respect for on this one. He has said for a long time that the derivative situation ‘guarantees quantitative easing to infinity,’ which is one of the great statements of all-time….

 

 

“I think this JP Morgan revelation just confirms that everything Jim’s been saying for a long time on this subject is dead right. The fact that we will have QE to infinity would suggest that an intelligent person would be buying every single ounce of gold and silver he can get his hands on at these prices.

 

They are trying to sell this idea that gold goes down on the ‘risk off’ trades that we are experiencing now. And that the ‘risk off’ buyers all go running into the US dollar and the US bond market. I think those are two of the riskiest things on the planet. But somehow they are still getting this ‘Pavlovian response’ that when things are bad out there, you should sell your gold and buy US bonds. It’s ridiculous.

 

It’s important, at this time, that people who have been around, and have a pretty good grasp of what’s unfolding, should express their views to the public just to counteract the propaganda they are receiving from mainstream media. It’s tough enough out there without being lied to all of the time.”

 

Embry had this to say regarding gold: “What they want to do is keep it (gold) in a range. Right now that range is $1,550 to $1,900. Can it go below $1,550? Sure, in the short-run it could. But the fact is the big move coming from these levels is going to be to the upside.

Trying to pick a bottom is always a difficult thing to do. Put it this way, you’re a lot closer to a significant bottom than you are to a top.”

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